Feb 15, 2021
The click-bait con artists on YouTube are making money telling you the housing market is going to collapse in 2021. Today I’m going to tell you why they are wrong.
If you were following real estate at the beginning of 2020, you would have been able to find any number of morons on YouTube talking about why the real estate market was going to crash in 2020. They didn’t have statistics to back up their claims. The closest some of them got to logic was to refer to the cyclical nature of the economy. They would say “it’s time.” Some even said, “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but something will. It does every ten years.”
“Hogwash” said I. All of the data pointed to a robust year. I confidently predicted a 7% rise in the value of homes by the end of 2020. I also predicted that we would see a drop in the number of homes sold, but demand in excess of supply coupled with low interest rates would push the price up.
Then the pandemic hit. And I was told by many, “see? I told you so. I told you something would happen.” I agreed then that something had indeed happened, but it was going to take a moment to figure out the impact of it. After 30 days of reflection I revised my previous prediction down from 7% year over year gains to just under 3%. As I’ve said on this show many times, all of the major real estate outlets revised their 2020 predictions to a 3% decline in prices.
In the end, my original prediction of 7% gain turned out to be spot-on accurate and the real estate market as a whole was one of the bright spots in the US economy in 2020. So what will 2021 be like? Can I continue my streak of accurate predictions? Will I ever get the number of clicks the Chicken Little Sky is Falling Real Estate is Crashing con artists get? The answers are YES and NO.
Alarmist headlines get noticed. You know the old saying in the newspaper industry - if it bleeds it leads. You’ll never see headlines about the cat that got itself down out of the tree, or the fire that was averted because people used normal safety precautions. You also won’t see a lot of hype about a generally positive forecast in the real estate market. But do not despair!
I don’t care about clicks. Not really. Real estate moves slowly and is relatively boring. That’s a major reason I love it! If you will take a bit of time to study it, and understand the various leading indicators, you too could be as accurate as me. But if you need or want clicks and a monetized youtube platform, you’re probably going to have to scare people a little.
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News:
- https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/figuresfriday/top-10-flipped-zips-in-q3-2020/
- https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2020/12/u.s.-case-shiller-home-price-index-closes-2020-with-a-bang.aspx
Topic: Housing Markets 2021
- A fine compendium of opinions from leading real estate professionals. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2020/12/16/experts-predict-what-the-housing-market-will-be-like-in-2021/?sh=14081a0b36dc
- Norada thinks we real estate will stay hot. https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions/
- Here’s some love and predictions for Massashusetts, https://realestate.boston.com/buying/2020/12/22/experts-predictions-us-mass-housing-2021/
- Pay attention to these trends. Well done Motley fool. https://www.fool.com/mortgages/2020/12/22/3-housing-market-trends-to-watch-in-2021/
- More optimism for the housing markets in 2021 but perhaps a little overstated. https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/2021-will-likely-see-the-most-robust-housing-market-in-15-years-222039
- Homeowners - YEAH. Renters - 2021 might be a struggle. Landlords too. https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/what-to-expect-from-the-housing-market-in-2021
- A LONG but thorough review of the housing data for 2020. https://www.michaelgersitz.com/us-housing-market-forecast-2020-2021-will-it-crash-or-recover/
- Realtor magazine weighs in on the 2021 market. https://www.realtor.com/research/2021-national-housing-forecast/
- https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-2021-housing-predictions-28516/
- Private enterprise will always do a better job, be more innovative, and will ultimately serve the consumer better than the government. https://www.thecgo.org/research/a-primer-on-housing-finance-reform/?utm_term=housing%20market%20crash&utm_campaign=NA_GG_S_CGO&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=5827172578&hsa_cam=10168821513&hsa_grp=104448528209&hsa_ad=438449824760&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-428192013546&hsa_kw=housing%20market%20crash&hsa_mt=b&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=Cj0KCQiAlsv_BRDtARIsAHMGVSYMgXp86xQH3Y80urDOeaUt9HJKAsmVqcyGYbhdj7VsOWt671HLQ5MaAt3ZEALw_wcB
- Housing Wire’s take on the 2021 real estate market. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-market-outlook-for-2021and-beyond/
- From Logan Motashami at HousingWire https://www.housingwire.com/articles/what-to-expect-from-the-2021-housing-market/